Hiring Continues in High Gear with Implications for Real Estate, Fed Policy
Job growth continues at consistent, above-average pace.
Employers added 372,000 personnel to payrolls in June, bringing the total job count to within 0.4 percent of the February 2020 high. June marked the fourth consecutive month with an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent and job creation in the high-300,000 range. While last month’s hiring trails measures from earlier in the year, it is nevertheless well above other periods of tight unemployment. Encouragingly, robust employment growth is occurring in sectors that have already surpassed pre-pandemic headcounts, in addition to other fields that continue to steadily recover.
Larger industrial, office staffs have differing real estate impacts.
Sectors that have grown the most relative to pre-pandemic include transportation and warehousing, along with professional and business services. Staffing in the former segment is up by 759,000 since February 2020, with the added labor reflecting elevated demand for distribution centers and warehouses. A record 551 million square feet of industrial space was absorbed in the 12 months trailing April,
dropping vacancy to a historic low. The 880,000 additional personnel in professional and business services have had a less direct effect on offices, given remote options. While absorption has been net positive for more than a year, vacancy has stayed within 30 basis points of the March 2021 high. Larger staffs may help offset lower office visitation rates as firms continue to evaluate long-term needs.